Port Tracker forecasts first half of ’09 well below last year

Retail container traffic at the nation’s ports sank 14.6 percent in January, according to the
monthly Port Tracker report released March 6 by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

Port Tracker forecasts the first half of 2009 will see volumes well below last year’s levels. Even as
ports gear up after the traditional low-point of February, the estimate for March is up only slightly.
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.05 million twenty-foot-equivalent units in January, the most recent
month for which actual numbers are available. Volume has declined for 19 consecutive months.
The last year-over-year increase was July 2007, when the 1.44 million TEU was up 3.4 percent
from July 2006.

“February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, so we’re now at the point where we’ll see
a gradual increase in volume as retailers bring in spring and summer merchandise and build up
toward the holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and
customs policy. “But this year’s numbers are going to remain well below last year because sales
are still slow and most economists aren’t seeing a recovery before the second half of the year at
the earliest. Careful inventory management is a key to survival for retailers in the economic times
we’re going through.”

February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, was estimated at 1 million TEU, down 17.7
percent from 2008. March is forecast at 1.07 million TEU, up 5.3 percent from February but down
7.4 percent from a year earlier. April is forecast at 1.14 million TEU, down 10.3 percent from a
year ago; May at 1.16 million TEU, down 11.4 percent; June at 1.19 million TEU, down 8.6
percent; and July at 1.21 million TEU, down 7.5 percent.

The first half of 2009 remains forecast at 6.6 million TEU, down 11.7 percent from the 7.5 million
TEU seen in 2008. Total volume for 2008 was 15.2 million TEU, down 7.9 percent from 2007’s
16.5 million TEU and the lowest level since 2004’s 14 million TEU.